A fresh Western Disturbance is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir from 22 afternoon.
Under its influence rain/thundershowers/snow is expected at most places in Jammu and Kashmir on 23 & 24 October.
Initially (on 23 October), rain is expected in all plains while in higher reaches moderate to heavy snowfall is expected.
From afternoon/late afternoon of 23 October, significant fall is expected in temperatures.
Places like Sonamarg, Gulmarg and many other higher reaches are very likely to receive season's first snowfall.
There are 55% chances of snowfall in Pahalgam, Jawahar Tunnel, Machil and Tangdhar also.
Razdan Top, Sinthan Top, Z-Gali, Zojila, Margan Top, Peer Ki Gali, Sadhna top, Nowgam, Bangus Valley, parts in Gurez Valley are likely to receive heavy snowfall.
Higher in Jammu region may also receive light to moderate snowfall.
There are 20-25% chances of snowfall in Shopian district between 23 late afternoon and 24 evening.
In other plains, chances of snowfall are less than 15%. Most of the forecasts continue to indicate only rain in plains.
Day temperature in most of the plains is expected to stay below 13°C on 23 October.
Under exceptional circumstances like evaporative cooling due to heavy rainfall can only make snowfall possible in plains. However, due to rainfall, humidity percentage will be more than 90% on 23 October, taking down the effect of evaporative cooling.
It is really a tough call as a slight change in temperature and humidity can change the type of precipitation.
From last 2 - 3 days, intensity of the system has picked up. Speaking from the past experience, many times intensity of the weather system decreases 24hrs before the commencement of rainfall as models sometimes fail to take many things into consideration.
So there is really a hope, intensity of the weather system may decrease in the coming runs (forecasts).
I will keep issuing forecasts as the things get more clear.